Friday, January 4, 2008

1-4-08: Iowa Results

I wasn't really surprised to see Huckabee do so well in the Iowa caucuses yesterday. I didn't think he'd win by that sort of margin, but I wasn't really shocked to see him win. It'll be interesting to see how things go in New Hampshire, since Romney will likely have the edge there as a former governor of Massachusetts. On top of that, Romney's economic policies will be more important than his morals, which won't help Huckabee.

The much bigger surprise was Obama's margin of victory, and the fact that Hillary finished in 3rd. Not exactly devastating, but nevertheless quite interesting. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the Democratic race, but my bet is that Hillary will win in New Hampshire, with Obama coming in second.

No real shocker that Dodd and Biden dropped out. The unfortunate part of the Iowa caucuses is that they really screw the little guy. If you don't get 15% of the "votes" at one particular meeting place, you get NONE. It reminds me of my company's overtime policy in a way. We need to work a certain amount of hours before any real overtime starts to add up. Then, after a while, they all count. It's just a different way of doing things. Either way, that usually explains the margins of victory in caucuses, and why primaries are more fair to long shot candidates.

If I were to do a power ranking of the Republican candidates going into New Hampshire, I think I'd put down (in descending order): 1) Romney and Huckabee (tie) 3) McCain 4) Giuliani 5) Thompson 6) Paul 7) Hunter and Keyes. I wouldn't be surprised to see McCain make a decent showing in New Hampshire, but I would be absolutely shocked to see Romney drop below third. That would be devastating to his campaign. I went to a Huckabee speech in New Hampshire a few months ago (got my picture in the paper there, actually). He has a pretty good following there. We'll see how all that goes in just a few business days.

No comments: